Consensus risk detection

See when market consensus is fragile before it breaks.

We monitor how certainty forms, compresses, and collapses in real time—not by predicting outcomes, but by tracking belief dynamics.

Timing-focused signals. Not directional. Not a trading recommendation.
Grounded in live belief environments, including prediction platforms like Polymarket (as a reference point, not a dependency).
What you’ll see
Consensus Compression
Calm may be fragile when beliefs converge unusually fast.
Surprise Risk
Elevated likelihood of abrupt belief shifts.
Confidence Bands
How much trust the system has right now—shown, not hidden.
The problem

Most tools show prices. They don’t show fragile calm.

Market dashboards tell you where prices are, what just happened, and how volatile things have been. They don’t tell you when disagreement is disappearing, when calm is artificial, or when the next move is likely abrupt.

Where prices are

Good for orientation. Not enough for early warning.

What just happened

Useful for narrative. Too late for prevention.

Historic volatility

Backwards-looking. Doesn’t explain fragile consensus.

What we do differently

We track belief dynamics, not just prices.

We continuously analyze how collective confidence evolves across markets and flag moments when consensus becomes unusually tight, unstable, or overconfident.

Uneven information

Signals surface when information is likely distributed asymmetrically.

Misleading silence

Low activity can hide instability—silence is treated as informative.

Small events, large reactions

We focus on regimes where minor triggers can cause outsized belief shifts.

Core signals

Timing-focused, not directional.

Signals are designed to help you decide when to pay attention—not what to do.

Consensus Compression

Detects when beliefs are converging faster than normal. Calm may be fragile.

Surprise Risk

Indicates elevated likelihood of abrupt belief shifts.

Stability Score

Distinguishes noise from meaningful regime change.

Confidence Bands

Shows how much trust the system has in each signal right now.

How it works

No frozen models. No backtest theatrics. No hidden certainty.

The system updates continuously from live data, tests multiple hypotheses in parallel, retires signals that stop working, and adjusts confidence based on real-world performance.

Continuous updates

Signals refresh as markets move—without batch “training phases.”

Parallel hypotheses

Multiple perspectives run side-by-side so no single view dominates by default.

Self-correction

Signals that stop working get downweighted and retired.

Confidence you can see

Uncertainty is explicit, and confidence is earned over time.

Use cases

Overlay, alerts, and monitoring—no workflow replacement.

Use it on top of existing tools, as early warning, and as a market-quality layer via dashboard or API.

Overlay

Add belief-dynamics context to the tools you already use.

Alerts

Get notified when consensus tightens or conditions destabilize.

Monitoring

Track market quality and fragility across many markets at once.

We don’t predict outcomes. We detect when certainty forms faster than information.