Signals
Core signals that tell you when to pay attention.
These signals are timing-focused, not directional. They’re designed to flag fragile calm, elevated surprise risk, and regime shifts—with confidence shown explicitly.
Consensus Compression
Detects when beliefs are converging faster than normal. Calm may be fragile.
Interpretation: high compression can mean “fragile calm,” especially when participation is low.
Surprise Risk
Indicates elevated likelihood of abrupt belief shifts.
Interpretation: higher values mean small triggers may cause large reactions.
Stability Score
Distinguishes noise from meaningful regime change.
Interpretation: stability helps separate churn from structural shifts.
Confidence Bands
Shows how much trust the system has in each signal right now.
Interpretation: uncertainty is shown, not hidden. Cold starts and limitations are explicit.
Important: what these signals are (and aren’t)
They are
- Timing-focused
- Uncertainty-aware
- Useful as an overlay or alert stream
They are not
- Outcome predictions
- Trade recommendations
- Guaranteed correctness